Not financial advice. These are research setups for educational tracking only. Always do your own analysis and never risk more than you can afford to lose. Crypto is highly volatile — setups can invalidate instantly.
01 // THIS WEEK AT A GLANCE
7
Active setups
5 / 2
Long / Short
2.7×
Avg R:R
3–10d
Target timeframe
GREED
Fear & greed index
NVDA
Key event Aug 26
02 // MACRO BACKDROP
What's Driving the Setup Window
SUPPORTING
- VIX near 14.5 — low vol favours risk-on positioning
- S&P near all-time highs — crypto historically follows with a lag
- Fear & Greed in Greed zone — momentum is intact
- Spot BTC ETF flows positive week-on-week
RISKS TO WATCH
- NVIDIA earnings Aug 26 — miss could drain AI-linked crypto tokens fast
- Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 — hawkish surprise = immediate risk-off
- BTC still 25–30% below 2026 highs — no clear breakout yet
- Altcoin season not confirmed — BTC dominance still elevated
SIGNAL BIAS
- Favouring LONG setups in liquid alts — but sizing conservatively into NVDA/JH
- Avoid low-cap narratives until macro clears
- Prefer catalysts (NVDA read-across, RWA flows) over pure technicals
- All entries: wait for zone, not market order at open
03 // CURRENT SETUPS
Open & Watching
SOL/USDT
Solana
LONG
Entry zone
$148–155
Target
$188 +24%
Stop
$138 −7%
SOL has held above the $148 support level while BTC consolidated. It historically leads alts in risk-on moves due to its retail mindshare and active DeFi ecosystem. NVIDIA earnings (Aug 26) is the primary catalyst — a beat would accelerate broader risk appetite. If macro turns at Jackson Hole, the $138 stop closes the position.
LINK/USDT
Chainlink
LONG
Entry zone
$18–20
Target
$27 +40%
Stop
$16 −13%
Chainlink's CCIP is gaining traction as the interoperability layer for institutional RWA tokenisation — directly tied to the RWA theme tracked in the Alpha Investors page. DTCC and Swift pilot integrations are real catalysts, not narrative. Volume is building at current levels. The $16 stop sits below the Aug structure low.
RNDR/USDT
Render Network
LONG
Entry zone
$8.50–9.50
Target
$13 +42%
Stop
$7.50 −15%
GPU rendering demand narrative is directly tied to the AI compute thesis. Render Network is the most liquid DePIN play with a direct read-across to NVIDIA earnings on Aug 26 — if Blackwell demand beats, this is the token that reprices. Hold through the Aug 26 print, but close before Jackson Hole opens if the position hasn't moved.
TAO/USDT
Bittensor
WATCH
Entry zone
$420–450
Target
$580 +33%
Stop
$385 −12%
Bittensor's subnet model — incentivised AI compute networks — has real developer activity behind the narrative. The AI×crypto theme still has legs despite mid-year correction. Waiting for NVIDIA earnings (Aug 26) to confirm AI risk appetite is intact before entering. If NVDA beats, TAO is the highest-beta expression of that in crypto. Skip if NVDA disappoints.
AVAX/USDT
Avalanche
LONG
Entry zone
$32–35
Target
$46 +34%
Stop
$29 −12%
AVAX lagged BTC's early August move despite recovering subnet activity and enterprise blockchain traction. The divergence sets up a catch-up trade if macro holds into next week. Entry zone is the Aug support band. The $29 stop sits below the July low. Specific catalyst: any Avalanche subnet enterprise announcement or Grayscale AVAX flow news.
ETH/USDT
Ethereum
LONG
Entry zone
$3,200–3,400
Target
$4,200 +27%
Stop
$2,950 −9%
Spot ETH ETF inflows have been net positive. Staking yield (~3.5%) makes ETH an appealing risk asset during Greed sentiment phases — you're being paid to hold. Key support at $3,200; a break below invalidates the thesis and signals broader alt weakness. The $4,200 target aligns with the Aug 2025 resistance level that became support.
INJ/USDT
Injective
SHORT
Entry zone
$29–31
Target
$22 −27%
Stop
$33 +8%
INJ rejected at $30–31 resistance twice this month. The supply zone is thick — it was support in Feb that flipped to resistance after the March breakdown. A hawkish surprise at Jackson Hole (Aug 27–29) would be the trigger. This is a macro hedge against the LONG book — if risk appetite holds, close the short and let the longs run. Use only as a pairs hedge.
04 // RECENTLY CLOSED
Last 4 Signals · Track Record
| Pair | Dir | Entry | Exit | P&L | R | Result | Close date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL/USDT | LONG | $133 | $159 | +19.5% | +2.8R | WIN | AUG 14 |
| RNDR/USDT | SHORT | $11.20 | $12.10 | −8.0% | −1.0R | STOP | AUG 10 |
| LINK/USDT | LONG | $16.40 | $21.80 | +32.9% | +3.1R | WIN | AUG 7 |
| AVAX/USDT | LONG | $29.50 | $28.20 | −4.4% | −1.0R | STOP | AUG 4 |
Track record: 2W / 2L
Win rate: 50%
Avg win: +3.0R
Avg loss: −1.0R
Expectancy: +1.0R per trade
→ Full tracker on Paper Portfolio
05 // HOW TO USE THESE SIGNALS
Reading the Cards
Entry Zone
Don't market-order in. Wait for price to reach the zone, then look for a 15m confirmation candle close before entering. Zones absorb volatility without you chasing.
R:R Ratio
Risk-to-reward. A 3:1 means the target is 3× further from entry than the stop. Only take setups with R:R above 2.0. This is what makes a positive expectancy system even at 40% win rate.
Position Sizing
Kelly formula: f = (bp − q) / b, where b = R:R, p = estimated win rate, q = 1−p. Use half-Kelly until a 20+ trade track record is established. Never risk more than 2% of capital on any single trade.
Status Badges
WATCHING = setup is valid but price hasn't reached the entry zone yet. ACTIVE = price is in the zone, position can be opened. TRIGGERED = entered, position is live.
Macro Gates
Some setups are gated on external events (NVDA AUG 26, Jackson Hole AUG 27–29). Don't enter a gated signal before its trigger event confirms — you'd be adding risk ahead of a known binary.
Paper Portfolio
Log every signal you take (or would take) in the Paper Portfolio. The track record drives Kelly sizing — without data, any position size is a guess.